Any Mathematicians or Statisticians Here?

Photo4x4 replied on 17/01/2023 11:15

Posted on 17/01/2023 11:15

Hello

I have never been very good at maths and trying to figure out this answer has begun to boggle my mind, so any sensible answer would be much appreciated. I am trying to work this out for an article that I am writing. It is not a trick question and I honestly do not know the answer. I've tried looking up a solution on-line but ended up more confused!

What are the odds (or probability) that the following could happen?

  • A randomly mixed deck of playing cards (52) is placed face down. You guess what the top card is, turn it over and you are correct. You place it to one side.

The odds of this happening must be 52-1.

  • Now you guess the next card, turn it over and you are again correct. You place it to one side.

The odds of guessing this correctly must now be 51-1, as there are now just 51 cards left.

  • This continues right down to the remaining 2 cards, when you now have a 50/50 or 1 in 2 change of being correct.

In my mind, as you go down the deck then for each individual guess the odds decrease. But, the cumulative odds of guessing each card in sequence must increase.

Are you still with me?

So my question is: What are the odds of correctly guessing the sequence of all 52 cards in a randomly mixed deck?

I looked at a similar 'problem' with rolling a die and worked out that the odds against correctly predicting the outcome of rolling the die 6 times in succession was 6 x 6 x 6 x 6 x 6 x 6 = 46,656 : 1

However I'm stumped with the card question.

Thanks

KH

 

 

DEBSC replied on 17/01/2023 22:22

Posted on 17/01/2023 22:22

Thanks Corners, that is what I was trying to say - I think. 🤔 

Anyway Happy Birthday.

Cornersteady replied on 18/01/2023 16:57

Posted on 17/01/2023 22:22 by DEBSC

Thanks Corners, that is what I was trying to say - I think. 🤔 

Anyway Happy Birthday.

Posted on 18/01/2023 16:57

Thank you!

Cornersteady replied on 18/01/2023 17:00

Posted on 17/01/2023 22:10 by Cornersteady

Ok my turn:

if I give you the whole numbers from 1 to 15, can you rearrange them into a new order where every two adjacent numbers add to give a square number?

When I'm sober and if I remember posting I'll give you the answer. NO using google!

Posted on 18/01/2023 17:00

I am sure many of you will have spent a happy few hours working this out.

 

8     1     15     10     6     3     13     12     4     5     11     14     2     7     9

Navigateur replied on 18/01/2023 19:25

Posted on 18/01/2023 19:25

 I notice a couple of sequences in the positioning of the numbers.  Can you extend this beyond 15 then?    

Cornersteady replied on 18/01/2023 20:42

Posted on 18/01/2023 19:25 by Navigateur

 I notice a couple of sequences in the positioning of the numbers.  Can you extend this beyond 15 then?    

Posted on 18/01/2023 20:42

Yes, 1 to 15 is actually the first set that makes it possible,  1 to 16 and 17 is also good but then it cannot be done till 1 to 23, 1 to 24 isn't possible but then from 1 to 25 onwards everything works.

 

Cornersteady replied on 19/01/2023 17:02

Posted on 19/01/2023 11:19 by Navigateur

Thanks.  The "Law of Large Numbers" again.

Posted on 19/01/2023 17:02

My pleasure Nav.

Now a club site has an infinite number of pitches and they are all taken, then another outfit turns up...

RogerP1956 replied on 20/01/2023 20:08

Posted on 19/01/2023 17:02 by Cornersteady

My pleasure Nav.

Now a club site has an infinite number of pitches and they are all taken, then another outfit turns up...

Posted on 20/01/2023 20:08

Ask everyone to move down by one pitch, then the new arrival can use pitch one.

OR 

Call it a CL site then at least seven caravans can fit on to five pitchesmoney-mouth

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