Co 2

We can supply everything. Power, Fuel, Food and Industrial products. Recent events have shown that outside sourcing is unreliable. Likewise quality control, welfare issues would be ours.  Lets start by only buying local, home grown products wherever possible. Soon pressure would grow on industry to match the demand.

At a price, that is why we even import coal from Australia as it is cheaper than,home produced

Remember the old saying " cheapest not always the best". Many found that out with the Gas shortage. Likewise there is a fundamental problem with delivery of almost all commodities. Add on the Shipping cost of a container from China has exploded from 2K to 18K in a few months, and the cheap Chinese C..p is no longer looking good.

“We can supply everything”

Not sure that applies to a decent bottle of red.

Did 100,000 HGV drivers and 10,000 Butchers from the EU leave overnight a fortnight ago?that seems to be the reason for all these shortages. Surely these business heard of the referendum in 2016.

Not sure about a fortnight ago, Logistics UK the trade body were predicting all this back in the Spring warning of a perfect storm when Brexit, cancelled HGV tests and upturn in demand post lock-down all coincided. It could have been anticipated, it could have been planned for, it could have been mitigated. Nothing much seems to happen unless precipitated by a crisis to expose the fragility of it all. 

Truckin' all over the World

1. The IRU - Truck driver shortages in 2021 expected to increase by over 25% worldwide

The International Road Transport Union (IRU) is the voice of more than 3.5 million companiesoperating mobility and logistics services in over 100 countries. Here is the IRU in June this year, following a member survey:-

“Truck driver shortages are expected to increase in 2021 by over a quarter on 2020 levels in almost all of the 23 countries surveyed in IRU’s recent global survey of road transport firms.

“Gaps are set to increase at a much higher rate in some countries, including by 150% in Spain, 175% in Mexico and 192% in Turkey… Almost 40% of road transport operators surveyed cite skills gaps as the number one cause of driver shortages, in markets as diverse as the Czech Republic, Norway and Romania to Russia, Ukraine and Mexico.”

“As we look beyond the pandemic, many operators will find it impossible to find drivers to meet future customer demand.”
2. British International Freight Association (BIFA) – European shortage of drivers reported in 2018

With some 1500 members, BIFA represents organisations engaged in the movement of freight to/from the UK by all modes of transport: air, road, sea and rail. Some members are also provide customs clearance and other cross border services.

Back in 2018 (before Brexit took place), BIFA cited the European Road Freight Transport report 2018, showing that in just six countries – the UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden and Norway – the shortage of drivers added up to 127,500.

“The UK led the way with a shortage of 52,000 drivers, but was closely followed by Germany at 45,000 vacancies – with predictions that this could increase by a staggering 28,000 each year.

“France had a shortage of 20,000 drivers, while road freight associations in Sweden, Denmark and Norway reported shortages of 5,000, 2,500 and 3,000, respectively.”
And this was all in 2018, well ahead of Brexit. Since then, further industry intelligence reports have shown the driver shortages in the major EU countries to have risen dramatically. Some of the latest studies show shortages of over 400,000 drivers in the EU27.

3. The (UK) Road Haulage Association

In July this year (2021) the RHA conducted a survey about driver shortages. The No.1 reason given by the respondents was ‘drivers retiring’ (58.54%). The RHA also made it clear that there has been a problem in the industry for years.

“Prior to the pandemic, [and therefore <b– Ed.] we estimated a shortage in excess of 60,000. At that time UK road transport businesses employed approximately 600,000 HGV drivers, including 60,000 from EU member states”
As part of the survey the RHA also asked about the current impact of driver shortages : “On an average day last week, what proportion of your fleet was idle because there was no driver available?”

Almost two-thirds (65%) stated the proportion of their fleet that was idle due to driver shortages was below 10%. Whilst there are undoubtedly driver shortages, if this survey is right then the problem needs to be seen in proportion.

The RHA also highlighted the problems caused by HMRC’s new tax treatment of self-employed drivers, under what are called ‘IR35’ rules. This has caused drivers to leave the industry.

“The large hauliers say that IR35 is the main reason for the current driver shortage crisis.”

- RHA Report on the Driver Shortage, 21 Jul 2021

Nice bit of research OneP.

The conditions for drivers in this country is appalling. A local villager packed it in just before Covid hit and the tales he tells of lack of facilities, security problems, work schedules, loneliness etc. makes it easy for me to understand why there is a lack of willingness to work in the industry. He's had a letter asking him to go back but he's much happier working locally, as a driver, but not HGV.

There are lots of fresh produce that we are unable to produce in our climate, or if we can it is at such an exorbitant price that the average person is unable to afford it.....citrus fruit for one, hence no orange juice etc.

Having had 14000 EU drivers leave the UK due to Brexit/COVID does leave a gap which we could do without. Now there could be all sorts of reasons why they left but unless they wanted to take settled status before they left, assuming they were entitled to it, it was unlikely that they would come back. Oneputt might be right about tax changes but I don't know much about that. Anyone from the EU now wanting to work in the UK has to spend about £3000 upfront, about £700 for a visa, another £700 to provide health cover and they have to demonstrate they have enough money to survive until their first pay date. So hardly an encouragement for them to come. 

There is another issue with lorry drivers which is not mentioned much but those that do cross between the EU and the UK used to take back a return load. There has been a substantial drop in the number of return loads, no doubt because of extra paperwork. In itself it would not be a massive problem but given the shortage of drivers it just adds to the problem. So there are lots of contributing factors for the position we now find ourselves in and its something we are going to have to live with. 

David